Texas State football (3-2, 0-1 SBC) is set for a homecoming clash with the Troy Trojans (3-2, 1-0 SBC) Saturday, Oct. 11, at UFCU Stadium.
The Bobcats return to San Marcos, likely with a sour taste in their mouths, sitting at 0-1 in the Sun Belt after falling 31-30 to Arkansas State. It wasn’t just a one point loss for the Bobcats, it was a loss in a game Texas State was a nearly two-touchdown favorite at 13.5 points.
Despite losing a game they were favored in by 13.5 points, the Bobcats’ recipe for success looked the same against Arkansas State as it has all season, and likely how it will look against Troy, which is score a lot of points.
By now, opposing coaches, players and fans know the Bobcats’ identity is one that hinges on scoring fast and scoring often. Through five games, Texas State is among the best offenses in the country, ranking inside the top 25 in total offense with 456.6 yards per game. For reference, Texas State’s total offense numbers are better than the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country: Ohio State and Miami.
But the Bobcats’ defensive efficiency and output are still lacking compared to their offense. While there has been some improvement in the defensive numbers from the beginning of the season, Texas State is still ranked in the bottom half of the country in total defense. The Bobcat defense ranks 88th in the country, giving up 382 yards per game to its opponents. For a team with aspirations of winning the Sun Belt on its way out, the defense has to find ways to buck up.
Luckily for Texas State, Troy’s offense isn’t the most daunting unit in the Sun Belt. The Trojans are ranked 115th in the country out of 134 teams in total offense. Troy is amassing just 322.8 yards per game and ranks 11th out of 14 teams in the Sun Belt, only scoring 22.6 points per game.
Troy will have the edge between the two defensive units. Troy ranks in the top 50 in the country in total defense, giving up just under 330 yards of offense per game. The Trojans also rank third in the Sun Belt, giving up 23.2 points per game to their opponents. If Troy holds Texas State to that average, they’ll likely be in good shape, but it won’t be an easy task. On paper, Texas State will be the best offense the Trojan defense has faced this year.
Troy is coming off a 31-24 overtime victory over South Alabama and will be looking to ruin Texas State’s homecoming, a week when the Bobcats cannot afford to lose if they want to stay on a path toward a Sun Belt championship.
For Texas State, early-season predictions had them as favorites in the Sun Belt, but last week’s loss threw an early wrench in the Bobcats’ chances to win the title on their way out. This week’s match against Troy figures to be about more than homecoming; it will also be about the Bobcats correcting course, getting back into form and playing like a team that is a conference favorite.
Texas State is set for a homecoming battle with Troy at 7 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 11 at UFCU Stadium. The game will be streaming on ESPN+.
