A Texas State study found that there is no evidence of the “Rainey Street Ripper” in Austin, instead linking the deaths to drownings.
The September 2025 report was released by the Texas State Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation, which analyzed drowning cases from 2004-25 and showed consistent drowning patterns in the area from before 2023, ultimately debunking the “Rainey Street Ripper” theory.
Researchers analyzed records of 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025, where 58 target cases were identified that matched the victim profile in the rumored serial killer theory, which is “healthy, handsome” men in their 20s or 30s; however, researchers studied all cases of men from the ages of 19 and 49. Between 2004 and 2025, only eight bodies that fit the target profile were found between I-35 and Congress Avenue, where the Rainey Street District is.
“Our study found neither direct evidence nor indirect warning signs of a serial murderer,” the study stated. “The frequency of drowning incidents in Austin is consistent with historical patterns, average drowning risk in Texas and population growth. A number of prior years have experienced more drownings than 2023, when allegations of a serial killer began to escalate.”
Kim Rossmo, director of the Center of Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation, said the sample size spanned over 20 years because it established a baseline to determine if there’s actually a serial killer by looking at patterns.
“If you’re trying to figure out if you have a serial killer, you first have to find out if you have murders,” Rossmo said. “Then, you have to figure out if they’re connected. So, you have to figure out if they are murders? Are these accidents? And are they connected?”
Rossmo said that researchers looked for clusters in the area, which are essentially data points that are close together in space and/or time, to see if there was evidence of a serial killer. However, the patterns did not exist and were consistent with the recreational use of the water.
The study states that no evidence of foul play was discovered, and the drownings were not crimes. The Travis County Medical Examiner’s Office said the deaths were accidental drownings and most involved intoxicated individuals who fell into the water. Rossmo said 2015, 2018 and 2020 all had higher target drowning rates than 2023, when adjusted for population
“Some people… were making a big deal of the fact that a lot of these [incidents] were men,” Rossmo said. “Well, that’s true of almost every drowning pattern. There’s a statewide study of almost 8,000 drownings in Texas, and about 78% of them are men, because men are bigger risk takers and men tend to drink more [plus], alcohol and water are a really bad combination. The frequency of drowning incidents is consistent with historical patterns.”
The Lady Bird Lake shore is near the end of Rainey Street, where multiple bars are present.
“From 2010 to 2020, Austin’s population grew 20%, the Metro area by 49% and Downtown Austin by 79%. Alcohol sales in the Downtown/Rainey Street district increased 320% from 2020 to 2022,” the study stated. “Five million people visit Lady Bird Lake and the Butler Hike and Bike Trails annually, and there are typically over 1,000 watercraft on the lake, 47% of which are paddleboards.”
“Rainey Street Ripper” rumors started ramping up in around 2023; however, Austin police have shut down the serial killer mumblings since 2018, saying the only connection of the deaths is alcohol and proximity to the lake.
The study states that “more lives will be saved by evidence-based prevention efforts than histrionic fear-mongering.”
“If you want to actually lower the risk of drowning, you need to look at education,” Rossmo said. “You need to look at the cooperation of the entertainment district. You need to involve all public safety agencies, state and local governments. You want to figure out changes you might make… that would actually save lives, but chasing after a mythical serial killer will not.”
In 2023, target drownings decreased after Austin City Council dedicated close to $1 million to improvements on the Rainey Street District trail. This includes the addition of security lighting, extended fencing, gates and wayfinding and an increase of police and park ranger patrols, plus stationed EMS medics.
The study was authored by Rossmo and Zena Rossouw, doctoral instructional assistant in the TXST School of Criminal Justice & Criminology, alongside Edward Anderson, senior research analyst with the Austin Police Department.
